I, admittedly, am prone to ghosting random players on $1/$2 tables on Stars or other sites like Titan Poker (get a Titan Poker Bonus) with ridiculously high average pot sizes. Why? Those games generally tend to be some of the juiciest; hyper aggressive players furiously bluffing and semi-bluffing to build up huge pots while tight players latch on for dear life with mediocre holdings. While watching one particularly insane table, I noticed two particularly huge hands, both won by a player holding what seemed to be fairly marginal cards preflop; 79s for one hand (cracked AA), 45o for the other (cracked AKs). During both hands, the player was consistent in his actions.
He called a standard raise of 3x preflop in position to the raiser, but with a mediocre holding.
He flopped a straight draw/two pair on an innocent board and called a half-pot or so bet.
He hit a straight/boat on the turn and raised the other player both times on the turn.
He open-shoved on the river, and was called both times with strong, but not monster hands given the board.
In both hands, each player had a stack of 150-200 big blinds. How are these players allowing themselves to blow off $300-$400 in a single hand, with hands that aren’t comfortable being involved in such big pots? Pot size and bet sizing can make a huge difference in keeping pots where you may be in trouble in control; in deep stack poker, big hands such as AA and AKs lose some value, simply because you lose a weapon that short stack and tourney players love to utilize in their game; the all-in. Instead, you’re forced to massage the pot with bets that protect your hand, but allow you to be exploited by good players who are aware of your tendencies; a hand where they may normally be getting incorrect odds to draw may become profitable if they are aware you have an overpair or AK/AQ type hand on an A high flop and that you’re not willing to fold it once you’ve sunk a fair amount of money into the pot.
First, let’s look at what went wrong with the first hand, AA vs 79s. AA raised to $6 on the CO, which is fine; 3x is pretty standard from that position. The button calls with 79s, a solid drawing hand with position as an added bonus. The blinds folded, so there was $15 in the pot going to the flop. The flop was Ks8c6d. AA bet $19 here, and while many will be quick to defend this bet, I dislike it for two reasons; The bet is over 120% of the pot, which discourages weak K’s and A8 from taking a card with you and getting themselves trapped in a pot. You’re also not giving your opponent a chance to make a huge mistake and play back at you by making such a large bet. A standard bet of $8-12 may provoke a raise from K10-KQ, allowing you to three-bet to a significant number ($100+) where a $19 bet may turn that into a call, and gives you a lot less information about the potential hand you’re up against.
79s calls with the open-ender and backdoor flush draw; AA’s bet reeks of a big hand, and 79s correctly assumes that if he takes a card here and hits, he’ll likely get all of AA’s chips, while a miss here will cost him just $25. For a chance at the $325 remaining in his stack, he’s willing to gamble a little. The pot is now $53. The turn is the 5c, giving 79 his straight and putting a flush draw on the board. AA bets $50 here, and I’m again not thrilled with this bet. We bet pot on the flop and were called. If we bet pot again here, what do we expect to get called with, based on the board? The only hands I’m really putting even a typical LAG on at this point are a set, ak or maybe kq, 86 or 97, or possibly 1010 or 99. Of those hands, he’s only calling a pot sized bet with AK, a set, the two pair combo or the straight. 10′s and 9′s were wanting to take the hand from a check on the turn (looks like a cont. bet) while KQ was probably wanting to see a check or small bet on the turn. Every other hand that could’ve called pot on the flop is folding to this turn, but all the hands that are beating AA are going to charge an extreme amount on the turn and river. 79s makes a smallish raise to $123, which I love in this spot. Besides offering attractive odds to AA, he also massages the pot to a point where AA may get pot committed and call a big bet on the river. The trap is set.
AA sees the raise of $73, and this should’ve ended the hand right here, in my opinion. The board, a completely innocent board, is not the kind of board a LAG likes to try to bluff on. If the LAG is good enough to run a bluff with JJ or QQ here, good for him; that’s hard to defend against here. But a player with AK facing two pot sized bets is likely to just call and see a river; the board is not threatening, and he’s happy to keep the pot small in relation to his stack size. Therefore, you’re only being raised by either a shrewd bluff or a monster, and AA is really shrinking at this point. AA calls the $73; the pot is now $309, and AA (the shorter stack) has $202 left in his stack. The river is a 2d, missing the flush. AA checks, which is the only justified play here; AA has completely shrunk and you need to hope your opponent will let you check the hand down somehow. 79s correctly bets $202; instead of going for the cute value bet of $100 like some players may try. 79s knows his opponent is calling $100 and $202 almost equally.
AA then compounds his previous errors by getting pot committed in his mind, and calling off $202 with AA, followed by a generous dose of smack-talking how horrible his opponent’s flop call was with just an open ender. Watch what happens if the flop bet is reduced to $10. The 79s still calls, taking a card given the stack sizes. On the turn, the pot is now just $35, and another half-pot bet here would be $18-20. The straight would raise, but now the amount is probably just to $50. If you decide to call, the river bet wouldn’t be an all-in but something more along the lines of $80-100. You lose $150-$180 instead of $350 if you can’t fold your AA, so stack size control already saved you half a buy-in during one hand. Our unfortunate AA player reloaded, and had built his stack back up to $360 when the next hand happened, again with a big hand, and again he lost his entire stack to the same player that busted him earlier.
UTG, he raised with AKs (AA now will be refered to as AKs) to $9, a raise which seemed pretty high from UTG at a full ring table, but nothing too terrible or out of line. The 79s guy now called UTG+1 with 45o, seemingly a weak, ultra loose call, but he was willing to take a flop with this guy, knowing he was steaming at him and for $9, a good flop could earn him his stack. The button and the BB also called, giving us a $37 pot going to the flop. The flop was Ad4c5h, giving AKs top-top and 45o bottom two. The BB checked, then AKs bet $35. You see the pattern AKs guy is falling into here? He overbets vulnerable hands to defend them, which gives him no way out if he’s completely crushed. 45o calls the $35, which is a little questionable to me, but I understand the logic; he wants a non-ace/face to hit the turn, where he’s certain AKs will fire again, and he may attract another player behind him to come over the top, thinking from his LAG play that he’s on a draw that he can be bet off of. The other players fold, however, and the pot stands at $107 going to the turn, AKs with $316 left in his stack.
The turn is a 5d, boating 45o and giving AKs a dangerous two pair. AKs checks, which is defensible here. It’s a defensive check that allows him to give his opponent the opportunity to say he has something; his opponent obliges by betting $55, a weakish-looking value bet of about half the pot. 45o’s bet is beautiful; he knows his opponent either has a small pocket pair and isn’t calling much regardless, or is attempting to trap with AK or AQ and is going to make a big raise here. AKs tanks for a minute, then pops it to $175, a $120 raise. This raise commits him to the pot, with only $141 behind the raise, and he’s absolutely certain his opponent is on some foolish draw again, and now, he’s “tricked” his crafty opponent. 45o tanks for about 45 seconds before shoving all-in, which is snap called by AKs, and when a 9h hits the river, he’s busted and irate, again. Once again, by making nervous, massive bets designed to make his opponents fold, he’s putting money in the pot that he’s going to get bound to just simply because of the percentage of his stack in the middle when his opponent announces that he has a better hand.
This hand is a lot harder to look at in terms of being foldable, but pot-size control is still an issue, here.
